Get ready for a flood of new fragrances this holiday season. After a rather disappointing 2001, fragrance houses are hopeful that by infusing the market with new introductions, consumers will respond with bountiful shopping sprees.
There is no one theme that connects these recent introductions, but they generally fall under umbrellas of classics, masterbrands, fashion, celebrities and never-before-seen. But one thing's for sure-this holiday season will define the trends in the fragrance industry for the next few years.
"What ever happens this Christmas will affect the future of the fragrance industry," predicted Annette Green, president of The Fragrance Foundation. "If consumers respond to totally new fragrances, it will encourage the industry to continue on that track. If consumers respond to new versions of the classics, the industry will have to rethink the mix."
Whatever ends up happening, increasing traffic in stores is the most important task at hand, especially after WSL Strategic Retail reported it will be a very late Christmas since shoppers plan to wait until the last minute for bargains.
Newness and More Newness
New launches comprised 3.8% of sales for first half 2002, according to NPD BeautyTrends, Port Washington, NY. Researchers said as the market shifted toward men, the top two fragrance launches were Givenchy Pour Homme and Truth Calvin Klein for Men. On the feminine side of things, Vera Wang leveraged her popularity with new brides and registered as the No. 3 new launch and No. 1 new women's launch.
NPD BeautyTrends pointed out that Father's Day sales have consistently foreshadowed the December holiday season in the past five years.
"Men's fragrances grew 6% for the month of June, and if this pattern holds true, Christmas sales for 2002 will be higher than last year," insisted Timra Carlson, vice president of NPD BeautyTrends. Father's Day was boosted by newcomers Truth for Men, Givenchy Pour Homme, Intuition for Men and Miracle for Men. The addition of mega-new launches this fall such as Polo Blue by Ralph Lauren and Calvin Klein's Crave, are also helping to grow the category, Ms. Carlson said.
Last year, the women's fragrance category was driven by new launches. However, Mother's Day sales were down 1%. Despite this, executives are optimistic that fragrances will do better than 2001's gloomy holiday sales.
Among new women's launches, NPD predicts Chance by Chanel, ardenbeauty by Elizabeth Arden, Forever Elizabeth by Elizabeth Taylor, Dior Addict by Christian Dior and Black Cashmere by Donna Karan will do well.
The Master Brand Technique
Experts agree that the master branding strategy works quite well for Estée Lauder. The basis of master branding strategy is that companies create counterpart fragrances for both men and women, or extend well-established brands within the same category.
Estée Lauder's Pleasures Intense debuted in August. Executives said the original Pleasures fragrance established a new fragrance category, sheer florals, and with its success, became a master brand. Pleasures Intense highlights pink tiger lily, a warm, velvety and spicy note. The flacon captures the Pleasures opulent shape, but has a deep fuchsia color rising from the bottle to signify the scent's rich floral essence. It was introduced not to complement Pleasures, but to both offer a similar fragrance to an existing buyer and appeal to a different shopper as well. Pleasures is the No. 2 master brand.
Estée Lauder launched Lauder Intuition for Men in July to match the successful women's Intuition fragrance. The male scent introduced a new fragrance classification: solar oriental. Executives said the fragrance is more vibrant than other oriental scents.
|Polo Ralph Lauren Blue, inspired by St. John, hits a younger audience than Polo.|
"Sixty percent of women's fragrances are part of a master brand, while 90% of men's fragrances are part of a master brand," explained Daniel Annese, vice president of marketing, North America, Estée Lauder. "When you add this to the fact that 60% of men's fragrances are purchased by women, it made a lot of sense to introduce a men's version of Intuition."
This can also be applied to fougére oriental Fubu Plush, Lancôme's spicy fougére Miracle for Men and Giorgio Armani's Armani Mania, a fresh, woody and sensual fragrance.
"In most cases, women's fragrances represent roughly two-thirds of the entire fragrance industry," said Serge Jureidini, general manager, Giorgio Armani Parfums. "Also, many times women will purchase men's fragrances, so it's important to first establish a brand with female customers."
Alfred Sung's new Hei Alfred Sung fragrance for men is the companion to Shi Alfred Sung, a women's fragrance launched last year. Both fragrances are inspired by feng shui. Hei Alfred Sung is a green fougére aimed at 18- to 49-year old men. It retails in a 1.7- and 3.4-oz. eau de toilette (EDT).
In the opposite direction, Loewe is introducing Esencia Femme, a women's fragrance that follows the classic men's scent Esencia Loewe. The cylindrical bottle's scarlet color is meant to evoke passion and femininity, and targets women who want to be desirable. Esencia Femme has fruity, spicy, floral and woody notes. Executives said an LVMH-owned Spanish leather goods store introduced the fragrance in Spain and Portugal in September. The scent rolled out in Austria and Belgium in October, and will be introduced to the rest of the world in 2003.
A largely male-oriented company is hoping to make a splash with women with a new casual fragrance. Wegner, maker of Swiss Army knives, insists its large female following is looking for a counterpart to its men's Swiss Army and Swiss Army Altitude fragrances, introduced in 1997 and 2001, respectively. The floral women's scent, Swiss Army for Her, rolled out in late October. It features notes from indigenous plants in the Swiss Alps, such as edelweiss and Swiss alpine berries, and is housed in an army knife-red cylinder with a metal cap. The products include a 1.7- and 3.4-oz. EDT spray, body lotion, shower gel, deodorant stick and 3ml travel spray on a chain.
Victoria's Secret is hoping Very Sexy for Her will be as successful as the company's first men's fragrance, Very Sexy for Him, has been. Executives said Very Sexy for Her is for a woman who loves everything about being a woman. Top notes include clementine, pimento and capucine. The heart combines camelia, sambac, mimosa and hydrangea flowers with a base of vanilla orchid, pearl musk and white amber. Three purse sprays, a body lotion and a body wash launched last month.
Also new from Victoria's Secret is the Secrets fragrance collection, spotlighting five different scents with undisclosed notes to personalize buying decisions. The scents include Secret 33 Sensuality, Secret 55 Flirtation, Secret 66 Romance, Secret 77 Magnetism and Secret 88 Temptation. The collection is offered in eau de parfum (EDP) sprays, body lotions and body washes.
It Takes Two
Instead of staggering the launches of two same-brand masculine and feminine fragrances, some companies are introducing both at once. Kenneth Cole is putting a slight twist on the master branding strategy by targeting couples that shop together with Kenneth Cole New York. It was developed in a male and female version through license with Parfums Givenchy.
The same is true for Liz Claiborne's new scent Bora Bora. A male and female version of the scent was launched to target a young 18-34 audience and is said to evoke a romantic image of the mysterious and legendary Bora Bora Island in the South Pacific.
Bora Bora for Women has white floral and mango musk notes. Bora Bora for Men features green fruits, ginger, moss and fig. Both the women's EDP and the men's cologne sprays retail in 1.7-oz. and 3.4-oz. sizes.
Versace's Jeans Couture division is launching two his-and-her scents featuring oversized gold and emerald plastic gems on the bottles, and cartons with faux diamonds. The women's floral scent and the men's woody floral musk, called Versace Jeans Couture, will be launched in the U.S. this spring.
British designer Paul Smith will launch his second fragrance masterbrand for men and women, Paul Smith Extreme, in the U.S. this spring. The first masterbrand, Paul Smith, and the second, feature woody notes for men and woody floral notes for women in minimalist, square-shaped flacons. Paul Smith Extreme, however, is stronger than the first pair. Both Paul Smith Extreme scents retail in 30-, 50- and 100ml sizes.
Upscale and outdoors company California North recently introduced O2xygen. Inspired by the sun and sea, O2xygen: for Men is a clear compilation of the outdoors with notes such as cedarleaf, ginger and oakmoss. The women's fragrance, O2xygen: for Women features the sparkling and clean power of nature and combines flower and fruit essences. Both O2xygen scents retail in 1.7- and 3.4-oz. frosted glass EDT sprays.
A Classic Isn't Always a Classic
Another strategy several fine fragrance marketers employ is a seasonal version of well-established, classic fragrances.
"Building on a stronger brand name are flanker or seasonal products offering lighter versions of the familiar and recognizable," said Ms. Carlson. "Tommy girl Summer, Obsession Sheer, Tommy Summer and Eau De Cartier Concentree were just a few brands playing on this trend."
|Executives said Valentino Gold simulates haute couture and bohemian crystals.|
Other fragrance houses will introduce new versions of reputed classics. As a twist on Polo, Ralph Lauren is launching Polo Ralph Lauren Blue, a reinterpreted version for young and urban professional males. Executives said the fragrance comprises cool, warm and smooth fragrance notes and is referred to as a "crystal blue sensation." It was inspired by Caneel Bay on St. John island and embodies the masculinity, freedom and energy of the modern generation.
The cobalt blue bottle was chosen for a calming effect. Polo Ralph Lauren Blue is available in a 2.5- and 4.2-oz. EDT, aftershave, aftershave gel, shower gel and deodorant stick.
Another take on blue is Dunhill's Desire Blue, which was introduced in September. The Wella-owned fragrance house said the launch builds on the successful Dunhill Desire fragrance, which debuted in 2000. The fragrance is described as an aquatic amber. The bottle, juice and carton share a serene shade of blue to spur inner peace. The first fragrance, Dunhill Desire, was designed to inspire passion and sensuality. Executives said Desire Blue appeals to hip, urban and self-confident men, ages 25 and older.
Unilever Cosmetics International's (UCI) House of Cerruti is gearing up to launch Cerruti 1881 Amber next month for men. Executives said unlike Cerruti 1881 pour Homme, Cerruti 1881 Amber is more sensual and mysterious than the original. The Cerruti 1881 Amber man is said to be younger and more emotional, passionate, seductive and creative than the target of the former fragrance. Its woody, amber, floral fragrance reflect its radiant and sensual nature. Cerruti 1881 Amber is available this month at Sephora in an EDT spray and aftershave splash, both of which are housed in a frosted bottle, and an body wash and shampoo.
Rochas Absolu, a twist on the classic 57-year old Femme de Rochas fragrance, was unveiled this fall. Executives said the scent was created to capture the values of the ready-to-wear brand and embrace the house's French heritage. The fresh oriental scent is contained in a hemisphere-shaped bottle with a wide cap.
Classics are important, according to Fragrance Foundation executives. In fact, The Annette Green Museum in New York opens its new exhibit, "The Lure and Lore of Perfume Classics," this month. But at the same time, new products are essential to the business.
"Extensions of classic brands are very positive," said the Fragrance Foundation's Ms. Green. "But the choices-and consumers want and need choice-cannot subsist in only classic forms."
A Golden Future
A plethora of new women's fragrances have come to market. Some focus on elegance, which is often suggested with gold or gold accents. Valentino Gold, a UCI fragrance that will debut in December, features a concept of glamour, seduction and indulgence. The oriental fragrance is champagne gold-colored, as well as the graphics and edging on the modern square-shaped glass bottle. Executives said the fragrance was inspired by Valentino haute couture and bohemian crystals. It targets women ages 25 to 45. A 50- and 100ml EDP, as well as a body cream, will be available at select Nordstrom stores.
Rose Torrente-Mett, a member of France's Chambre Sydicale de la Couture, has introduced her first fragrance, L'Or de Torrente, infusing a unique combination of rose and coffee. The oval bottle is said to echo a woman's body and golden leaves top the flacon to symbolize the lace on a Torrente-designed dress. L'Or de Torrente comes in EDP, body lotion, shower gel, golden dusting powder and golden purse spray.
Lingerie, or rather seduction, was the inspiration behind La Perla's new fragrance, Creation. A gold bra clasp and cap adorn the slightly curvy bottle. The fragrance is fruity floral wood, with top notes of Calabrian Tangerine, a floral and vanilla heart and a base of white musk, patchouli and Benzion Siam. Already on counters in Europe and the Mideast, Creation will debut in the U.S. next summer in a 50ml EDP and ancillaries.
Van Cleef & Arpels has introduced Murmure, a fragrance of grace and radiance with clear and transparent essences, a modern white bouquet and enveloping woods. The elegant Murmure bottle stands tall like a flower stem, according to executives, in a clear glass flacon and shimmering gold cap, vertical band and accents. Murmure is sold in a 15ml perfume, 50- and 75ml EDT spray, perfumed body lotion and perfumed shower gel.
Luxury for the Ladies
Several other new women's fragrances focus on pure luxury and indulgence. Parfum No. 1, a soft, silky and intriguing perfume from The Pink Room, was initially launched in London three years ago, but has found its way to boutiques in Chicago, Texas and on the West Coast with a cult following. Executives said the Pink Room lady is a well-traveled, knowledgeable and choosy woman. Consumers will soon be able to purchase scented drawer liners, scented silk rose petals, dusting powder and a spa collection featuring the Parfum No. 1 scent.
Oscar de la Renta's Intrusion is a blend of sparking top notes, a rich floral heart and a sensual base. Introduced in April, executives said Intrusion speaks to a woman who is fascinating, intriguing and free. The oblong bottle contrasts glass, metal and tortoiseshell. Intrusion is sold in a 50- and 100ml EDP spray and 30ml refillable spray. Ancillaries include a perfumed silk body veil and a perfumed velvet body crème.
Yves Saint Laurent is luring women who are mysterious, complex, in control and seductive with its new fragrance nu. The fragrance creates intense layers with incense absolut, wood and spice notes and a heart of wild orchid and bergamot. Packaged in a circular gray-blue metal on the outside and deep blue bottle in the inside, the bottle appears to float in its cubic plastic holder. Nu products include a 1-, 1.6- and 3.3-oz. EDP, body crème and bath soap with refills. Also this month, YSL is offering a limited edition nu gift set with a 1-oz. EDP and a 1.6-oz. lotion.
YSL is also expanding its oriental-amber Opium fragrance with a new bath line that includes a shower gel, body moisturizer, body oil and body crème. The products use the restorative powers of poppy flower extract, myrrh milk, honey leaves and saffron.
Gucci's new floriental fragrance, Gucci Eau de Parfum, is an extension of Gucci's heritage of classic, luxurious and chic women's fragrances. The thick-glassed bottle with a circular black top reflects Gucci's traditional geometric shapes, executives said. Gucci Eau de Parfum retails in a 1-, 1.7- and 2.5-oz. EDP, moisturizing body lotion and bath and shower gel.
Avon's Dream Life woody floral fragrance features a Moroccan winter mimosa accord. The fragrance was designed to capture women's aura of possibilities. Untamed, another new Avon fragrance, is a woody oriental that encourages the free, sexy and daring spirit of a woman.
Sweet and Innocent
Some new women's fragrances target a younger crowd with sweet, innocent connotations.
|Chance by Chanel offers young women limitless possibilities.|
Camille Goutal, daughter of the late Annick Goutal, has launched Quel Amour!, her first full-line fragrance collection. The peony-based scent is available in three EDT sprays and a body lotion and is aimed at 20- to 30-something women. A special 3.3-oz. pink antique bottle topped with two kissing butterflies is also available at a higher price point.
|DaliStyle is based on a Dali painting.|
Chanel's Chance also serenades younger women. The fragrance was created to be a unique floral scent, using notes that are often found in men's fragrances, such as patchouli, musk and vetiver. "The balance gives an unexpected twist," insisted Laurie Palma, Chanel's senior vice president of fragrance and internet marketing. "It is a little fresh, a little woody and a little spicy. And it is very bubbly."
The name Chance is meant to denote chance in all facets of life, such as life, love and career. Chance launched with three EDT sprays, one pour bottle and a body lotion.
Everything But the Kitchen Sink
As women's lives become more hectic, the need for travel-ready items becomes all the more important. Several fragrance lines recently introduced purse-handy versions of their scents.
Vera Wang entered the fragrance category last February and added two new additions to her eponymous perfume line this fall. The UCI fragrance was created to capture the special and intimate moments of a wedding day. The new 0.25-oz. Vera Wang parfum purse spray and the new Vera Wang candle retail in Saks Fifth Avenue.
Boucheron Paris has introduced its Initial fragrance in a small EDT size, preserving the pearl-like shape of the signature flacon. The fresh scent is housed in 50- and 100ml sizes.
Van Cleef & Arpels Parfums introduced a refillable EDT spray in its First fragrance. The frosted glass oval bottle is topped with a pivotal golden ring that is raised and lowered to release the fragrance. First, a rich floral juice, retails in a 25ml refillable spray and a set of two refills.
Several world-renowned celebrities have recently agreed to develop eponymous fragrances. Coty, the No. 1 perfume and cologne mass market vendor in the U.S., according to Information Resources, Chicago, has signed a global licensing agreement with Celine Dion to develop and market a new fragrance line. She is the world's best-selling recording artist and the product line is said to capture the talent, style, femininity and confidence of which she has become a symbol, as well as balancing the tasks of motherhood.
"It seems that consumers today are identifying with the lifestyle of celebrities more so than with designers that traditional fragrance brands have been based on," noted John Galantic, president of Coty Beauty U.S. This builds on Coty's strategy to bolster its lifestyle brands by designing products to mirror and enhance consumers' lives.
Other lifestyle brands include adidas for athletic and sports-oriented consumers, Club Med that celebrates the fun and happiness of life, The Healing Garden which promotes well-being throughout a person's life and Rimmel, representing the hip, edgy, London lifestyle. Rimmel introduced three new fragrances this fall: London Glitz, London Cool and London Glam.
Coty has also attracted actress, fashion designer and singer Jennifer Lopez to represent her first line of fragrance, Glow, which debuted this fall. The line will be sold initially in the U.S., UK, Germany, Austria and Switzerland at select fine department stores and specialty stores with Ms. Lopez's J.Lo fashions. This month, samples accompany the launch of her album.
"Jennifer Lopez has become a movement, a lifestyle," said Bernd Beetz, chief executive officer, Coty Inc. "She represents a style and energy that will be expressed through every aspect of the fragrance products."
German supermodel Heidi Klum introduced her first fragrance in June exclusively in Europe. Reports indicated the line was extraordinarily successful, with more than $1 million in sales in the first month. With strong and sexy notes of jasmine, bergamot, vetiver, sandalwood and vanilla, Heidi Klum fragrance products include a 50ml EDP, 50ml EDP deodorant spray, shower gel, lotion and purse spray.
Forever Elizabeth, a new fragrance from The House of Taylor, is Elizabeth Taylor's tenth scent. This white floral juice features a feminine bouquet of flowers to represent Ms. Taylor's romantic outlook. The overall color is ruby red, to signify a ruby ring given to Ms. Taylor by actor Richard Burton. Forever Elizabeth is housed in clear glass with an opalescent finish. A 1.7-oz. and 3.3-oz. EDP, and ancillaries were launched last month. Executives hope to snatch both a younger and the fragrance house's traditionally older audience with this new scent.
Isabella Rossellini has launched her second fragrance this fall in Europe called Isa Bella. Her previous fragrance, Manifesto, expressed Ms. Rossellini's private image, while Isa Bella promotes her glamorous public self as an actress and model. The floral juice has notes such as kumquat, magnolia, orris and vetiver and features a bottle similar to Manifesto but in a red shade. The price points are slightly lower than Manifesto, and Isa Bella is sold in more doors, including high-end drug stores, perfumeries and department stores. Isa Bella retails in 30-, 50- and 75ml sprays.
Reports indicate Princess Jelisaveta Karadjordjevic of Yugoslavia has launched E, a scent representing her English name Elizabeth. Blending four flowers, the perfume will be manufactured and sold in Serbia and is dedicated to women in the republic.
What Men Want
Unilever has been busy in the past year developing and launching several men's fragrances. Even though Uni-lever recently announced it would like to scale down its product portfolio to focus on its mainstream personal care brands such as Dove and Suave, Unilever has indicated its Calvin Klein fragrance division is too big a brand to let go of easily. But the company is in the early stages of selling its top prestige perfumes, such as Valentino and Karl Lagerfeld.
Crave, a new scent from Calvin Klein, is said to be for a man who knows what he wants and how to get it-most importantly a woman. Company research said 80% of guys wear scent to connect with women and nearly 90% say his fragrance is the tool to get him in the game. Nearly 100% of women said a guy's scent gets her attention. The clean, fresh and sexy Crave scent helps young men enhance their sex appeal. Executives also noted that Crave fills a void in the men's fragrance market.
"With Crave, our mission was to meet the fragrance needs of guys 15-24-a critical segment of the population, which is underserved by the industry," said Hilary Dart, president of Calvin Klein Cosmetics.
Karl Lagerfeld recently launched Lagerfeld Man in Europe, a fragrance inspired by the look and smell of men with freshly ironed white shirts. This fragrance follows in the footsteps of Lagerfeld Femme. The five-SKU range includes a 50- and 100ml EDT spray.
Helmut Lang's new Curion fragrance, a musky scent, is an attempt to reinvent leather with a modern twist, without losing its classic masculinity. The amber flask is modeled after an antique Viennese apothecary bottle.
Clarins' new Lacoste Pour Homme is described as a fresh and classic fragrance. Designed for the stylish gentleman, the juice features top notes of ruby grapefruit, plum and apple; middle notes of juniper, cardamon, pink peppercorn and cinnamon and a base of Jamaican rum, sandalwood, cedarwood, vanilla and musk. The gray flacon is topped with a silver cap and a signature Lacoste crocodile. Lacoste Pour Homme is sold in 1.6- and 3.3-oz EDT sprays and ancillaries.
M7, the seventh men's fragrance from Yves Saint Laurent, is a return to a resolutely male archetype, a man that is as mysterious as he is confident, according to executives. This fresh, woody fragrance begins as an alluring scent, with refined and raw undertones. M7 is packaged in a rectangular-shaped dark amber bottle and is available in a 50- and 100ml EDT, aftershave lotion, all-over shower gel and deodorant stick.
Babor's subtle Babor for Men EDT infuses citrus notes and spearmint, a heart of flowers and herbs and a drydown of woody and powdery notes. Babor for Men retails in a 125ml bottle.
Wild and Crazy
Jean Paul Gaultier, always known to walk on the wild side, has introduced several holiday sets, including three Classique options for women, two Le Male gift sets and a Fragile gift set.
Issey Miyake is also festive this holiday season. The floral L'Eau d'Issey fragrance will be available two gift sets either with a EDT or EDP. The fiery Le Feu d'Issey Light is sold in a package containing an EDT, body lotion and bath and shower gel. Lastly, L'Eau d'Issey Pour Homme, an energetic and spicy juice, is available in two gift sets.
Escada launched its sixth limited edition couture fragrance in late October. Executives said the packaging was created to look as though the bottle was wrapped in an Escada dress found in the winter fashion line. The Escada Collection's blue bottle features studded crystals in a snowflake pattern and retails in a 50ml limited edition EDP spray, a permanent 50ml EDP version and ancillaries. Escada Collection will only retail in 350 doors.
The Essence of Aromatherapy
The aromatherapy business has boomed, which has spurred the introduction of fragrances that solely consist of essential oils. For example, Apothia at Fred Segal has introduced Apothia.if, a fragrance based on the opinions of 100 women worldwide using essential oils and no alcohol. The Apothia.if scent is said to be exotic, sexy and refreshing. The top notes are Japanese citrus, rounded out by middle notes of a white flower bouquet and a drydown of a warm, gentle and clean musk. Apothia.if is housed in a roll-on flacon with a tactile silicone overlay.
The Healing Garden, an aromachology-based line from Coty, recently introduced The Healing Garden Waters Sheer Passion. This sensual fragrance utilizes Coty's Living Flower technology to create Waterborne essences that are true to nature and are derived from plants grown in water. Sheer Passion blends jasmine, passion flower and ylang ylang as well as vitamins C and E to moisturize the skin. Sheer Passion retails in 1- and 3.4-oz. sizes.
An Artist's Vision
Art and fashion often intermingle in the outside world as well as within the fragrance business. This is evident in two new fragrance entries focusing on art. DaliStyle, a new fragrance from Parfums Salvador Dali Paris and inspired by the artist's painting "Femme a la Tête de Rose," is a fragrance said to express the mystery of female beauty and the enigma of female seduction. The curved aquamarine bottle embodies a woman's veil-draped silhouette. DaliStyle's cap is a face chiseled from a handful of roses. The scent combines bright fruity notes, a floral bouquet and soft enveloping notes and is available in an EDT, perfumed body lotion, perfumed shower gel and perfumed deodorant spray.
Fashion designer Mila Schön with the help of Eurocosmesi has unveiled her latest fragrance, Mila Schön, referred to as "seduction art." Her first fragrance, Schön, will be phased out as marketers try to reposition the brand and attract younger women.
Much like Ms. Schön's simple seams and reversible wool fabric, the bottle has no front or back. The light juice is a combination of fruity top notes, a transparent spicy floral heart and a woody, amber and musk base. Mila Schön retails in a 50- and 100ml EDT with an ancillary bath line.
Though the final verdict on holiday sales is still months away, there is just about a little of everything to satisfy the harried shopper, from celebrity fragrances to Salvador Dali.
"This plethora of entries will have an impact on consumers," insisted Ms. Green of the Fragrance Foundation. "It is important to get traffic in the stores and all these new and exciting fragrances-based on celebrities, fashion and new concepts-will draw them in."
Others believe that classics are safe bets, even twists on originals.
"The industry is still driven by what is new," said Chanel's Ms. Palma. "But brands that have been successful over the past five years have the opportunity to reverse that trend and grow."