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Shoulda, woulda, coulda taken Coty bid.
January 23, 2015
By: TOM BRANNA
Editor
Hindsight is 50/50….a 50% discount that is. Even though Avon's share price has risen 8% in the past couple of days on reports that the company is in talks with the private-equity firm TPG about a potential takeover, analysts and investors were left to wonder what might have been. After all, back in 2012, Coty had offer to pay $24.75 a share for the world's largest direct seller. Even if a potential buyer paid a 50% premium to Avon’s current trading price, the buyer would get Avon for roughly half off what Coty had planned to pay in 2012. At the time, Coty’s offer was all-cash and had the backing of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B. Riley & Co. analyst Linda Bolton Weiser said the company’s options right now are sell to a private-equity firm or Coty or find a new CEO. Yet a sale would be an admission of defeat for the board, which decided to stand behind the turnaround plan of newly appointed Chief Executive Sherilyn McCoy, a veteran of Johnson & Johnson in 2012. During McCoy’s tenure, the company resolved one key issue. Avon reached an agreement with US federal regulators to settle a long-running bribery probe into its conduct in China, a move that required the company to pay $135 million in fines and other costs. Ms. McCoy has slashed costs at the company, but sales are still tumbling. The WSJ reported in mid 2014 that McCoy’s job could be in jeopardy if she failed to show the board more signs of a turnaround. Meanwhile, if McCoy executes a sale of the company, as CEO,she is eligible for a $9 million pay out under the company’s change-of-control provision. Weiser predicts that a potential buyer might be willing to pay between $11 and $14 per share for Avon. While Coty has said it’s not interested in Avon, analysts still predict that it could come back to the table or that Avon could attract more bidders to any auction it might hold. The company could be attractive to a private-equity bidder as it had roughly $826 million in cash during the first nine months of 2014, and there are both potential opportunities for further cost cuts or growth internationally.
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