Black Friday-Cyber Monday Forecast Not So Sunny

Citing issues such as sluggish growth in disposable incomes and the government shutdown, IBISWorld forecasts Thanksgiving and holiday gift spending to be weak this year. Revenue generated by the Thanksgiving holiday is expected to increase only slightly from 2012, according to the market analysis company. And while Cyber Monday sales are anticipated to increase strongly by double-digits in 2013, this growth rate is deceptive, as it is mainly due to consumers’ continued shift away from physical store shopping and toward online deals, the group said.

Overall gift spending from Black Friday through Cyber Monday is only expected to grow 2.2% year-over-year, according to IBISWorld.

Black Friday is projected to generate $13.6 billion in revenue this year, an increase of 3.9% over last year’s total. The smaller increase is due to the continued sluggish growth in disposable incomes and relentless high unemployment. Still, growth in Black Friday revenue will be driven largely by door-buster deals and online sales that start at midnight.

Spending during the Black Friday weekend (which includes Friday, Saturday and Sunday) is anticipated to grow just 1.7% to $38.7 billion. The bulk of weekend purchases (35.2%) is expected to be made on Black Friday itself.

Cyber Monday—while still only about 15% the size of Black Friday in terms of revenue—iis forecast to record double-digit growth of 13.1%.