Chemical Activity Up Modestly

It's a mixed bag of results within the US chemical industry, according to recent data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB)  expanded 0.1% in March following a revised 0.2% decline in February and 0.1% downward revision in January. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Accounting for adjustments, the CAB remains up 1.5% over this time last year, a marked deceleration of activity from one year ago when the barometer logged a 2.7% year-over-year gain from 2014. On an unadjusted basis the CAB jumped 0.9%, thus ending three consecutive monthly declines.


Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index.