Inflation Fatigue Prompts Cautious Spending on Black Friday: RetailNext

Health and beauty sales saw a few clouds on Black Friday.

Per new data from in-store traffic analytics provider RetailNext, sales on Black Friday saw a 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) decline in in-store foot traffic. Analysts say the findings reflect broader trends of cautious spending and intentional purchasing that have defined 2024.

“The early data from Black Friday weekend provides critical insight into how shoppers are navigating today’s economic environment,” said Joe Shasteen, global head of advanced Analytics at RetailNext. “While overall traffic remains subdued, we saw some notable reversals from trends observed throughout the year. Health & beauty, after an exceptional 2023 performance with a 12% increase in Black Friday weekend traffic, reflects a normalization this year.”

Inflation, Colder Weather Dampens Foot Traffic

Regional performance during Black Friday Weekend revealed the Midwest experiencing the sharpest decline, influenced by cold winter weather. In the Northeast, adverse conditions—though similar to last year—also dampened turnout but to a lesser extent, underscoring how external factors like weather can significantly impact shoppers’ decisions to venture out or wait in line, analysts say.

Additional pressures, including high grocery prices and the rising cost of living, have further influenced shopper behavior, with inflation-fatigued consumers carefully balancing discretionary spending. Foot traffic across 2024 has been down 3.1% year-over-year, with sales slipping 4% as shoppers remain cautious about spending. Retailers have responded by extending Black Friday deals to widen the shopping window, helping consumers find value while spreading out their purchases over time.

“This extended shopping period has ultimately decreased the singular importance of Black Friday itself,” said Shasteen. “Categories like apparel, footwear and jewelry saw notable traffic increases on the Saturday following Black Friday, indicating that consumers are spreading out their purchases. These trends show a shift in shopping behavior, with extended promotions allowing for more flexibility and reducing reliance on Black Friday as the primary shopping day.”

Online, Offline Strategies Keys to Consumer Expectations

Shasteen also noted the growing importance of integrating online and offline strategies to meet evolving consumer expectations.

“While foot traffic remains a cornerstone for measuring offline performance, today’s shoppers are increasingly expecting a seamless experience across all channels,” he said. “Retailers who successfully connect their physical stores with digital platforms will be better positioned to capture value this holiday season and beyond.”