Permanent Changes in Consumer Behavior

There will be no turning back even when the pandemic is behind us. According to McKinsey, there have been 10 major shifts in consumer shopping behavior since COVID-19 hit the US. They include:

• Digital shopping is here to stay. Categories where expected growth in online shoppers exceeds 35% include essentials such as over-the-counter (OTC) medicine, groceries, household supplies, and personal care products. 

• Milennials and high-income earners are in the lead when it comes to shopping online. Spending is shifting online across both essential and nonessential items. 

• Consumers are switching brands at unprecedented rates. Thirty-six percent of consumers are trying a new product brand and 25% are incorporating a new private-label brand. 

• Brands need to ensure strong availability and also convey value. Shoppers have cited a number of reasons for switching brands, with availability (in-store and online), convenience, and value leading the pack.

• Need for hygiene transparency. Technologies that enhance hygiene, particularly contactless activities such as food and grocery delivery and curbside pickup, are taking off. There is strong intent to continue contactless activities across the US. As an example, 79% of consumers intend to continue or increase their usage of self-checkout in retail after COVID-19. 

• Consumer shopping intent is focused on essentials. Around 40% of US consumers have reduced spending in general, and they expect to continue to cut back on nonessentials specifically. 

• Consumers want value for their money—especially in essential categories. For example, in shampoo on Amazon, value and mass products have experienced the greatest increase in share, at two- and five-percentage-points gains, respectively. Premium shampoo products have seen significantly less growth in comparison, losing more than five points of volume.

• Americans are changing how they spend their time at home. Whether it's cooking, exercising or working, consumers are doing more of it, and more, at home.

• Americans are concerned about going back to regular activities outside the home. As economies reopen, 73% of consumers are still hesitant to resume regular activities outside the home. 

• The “Great Consumer Shift” trends vary by consumer segment. If you're an older man with money, the pandemic isn't impacting your spending habits all that much.

McKinsey has identified five segments of the US population with the following characteristics:

Affluent and unaffected: These consumers express general optimism about the future (~20% higher than the overall US consumer population), skew male (60%), and make more than $100,000 a year. They tend to be able to stay at home during the pandemic crisis, allowing them to shop more online. This group is slightly less price sensitive than other cohorts due to greater job stability.

Uprooted and underemployed: These consumers are feeling major impact on both their finances and health due to job insecurity. They are cautious about how they spend money, with low optimism about future economic conditions. Not surprisingly, this group is trading down to essentials and value, swapping out brands, and shopping online when possible.

Financially secure but anxious: This population is largely 65 years old and older and is generally pessimistic about economic conditions after COVID-19, which has had a major impact on their habits. This group has expressed the greatest need for hygiene transparency, with above-average concerns on safety and well-being and concerns about the ability to get necessary supplies.

Out trying to make ends meet: These consumers are being cautious about how they spend money and feel that their jobs and job security have been heavily impacted by COVID-19. This group has significant representation from minority groups and rural populations. They are less likely to be able to stay at home (hence their lower likelihood to be part of the homebody economy), but they are strongly moving toward shopping for essentials and value.

Disconnected and retired: This category denotes those who are retired, over 65, and have a lower income level than the financially-secure-but-anxious segment. They are broadly optimistic about economic conditions after COVID-19 and are less likely to display any of the next-normal characteristics. Predominantly from Southern and suburban areas of the country, this group has not exhibited significant changes in shopping behavior.