“No-Makeup Makeup” Trend
While makeup still accounts for the largest portion of dollar sales within prestige beauty, the gap is closing between makeup and skincare. Sales of tinted moisturizer and lip gloss grew in Q3, as did nail care and nail base/top coats, while lipstick, concealer, primers, applicators and nail color all declined.
In skincare, core products including facial moisturizers and cleansers were notable performers, as were lip treatments and exfoliators—which both grew double digits. On the other hand, makeup remover products declined 4%. Facial skincare products targeted at brightening, acne, and anti-aging all saw growth, including brightening specialists, acne treatments and age specialists.
Heading into the Holiday Season
False eyelashes continue to perform well and this is poised to continue in Q4 as consumers complete their holiday party looks. Skincare sets grew 5% in Q3 and are typically hot items for holiday as consumers seek discounts through bundles and an opportunity to self-gift.
In fragrance, new brand and item launches in Q3 gave a lift to the category and will likely help to drive fragrance sales in Q4 as well—particularly in women’s. In men’s fragrance, eau de parfum juice sales grew 25% as men are gravitating more towards stronger concentrations—a trend to keep an eye on during the holidays.
“Makeup continued its decline in Q3 and the category will likely end the year with negative performance, even as we anticipate a stronger Q4 versus last year. Skincare dollar growth is the strongest of the beauty categories, and yet growth has begun to soften from the double-digit success it experienced in 2018. This is something we’ll be watching in anticipation of the next pendulum swing between makeup and skincare. Fragrance is poised for a strong Q4, as launch activity ramps up and excitement sets in for holiday. The last few months of the year are critical for fragrance, making up 44% of annual volume,” said Larissa Jensen, beauty industry analyst, The NPD Group.